As many of you have read, about a week and a half ago the PAD took things a step farther by taking over NBT, the state TV channel, and by occupying the Prime Minister's residence, known as Government House. Within a couple hours, the NBT offices were handed back to the state and the responsible protesters arrested, but Government House remains occupied. Over the weekend PAD-supporters disrupted air traffic by occupying several regional airstrips, specifically targeting tourist magnets such as Phuket and Krabi; after a brief reprieve, they are occupied again (except for Phuket). The baht is sinking even faster than the dollar and is currently the weakest it has been in the 18 months I've been here. Monday night the situation turned bloody as pro-government mobs clashed with the PAD. The prime minister on Tuesday declared a state of emergency, giving the military the option of sweeping through the streets as they did on Sep. 6, 2006. This is not likely to happen without royal approval or worsening violence because the military does not support the prime minister. The transportation and utility unions are threatening to cut Bangkok off from the rest of Thailand, which could be as early as Wednesday. Even more dire actions threatened by PAD are outlined here: http://www.notthenation.com/
All of this you could have found out on your own. What I can tell you is that although people in Chiang Mai seem very concerned about the situation, as far as anyone can tell, we are safe so far. No signs of protesting or unrest here, although a couple weeks ago a PAD rally was disrupted by a pro-government mob who attacked with rotten eggs and vegetables. There is no reason to fear for one's safety at the moment, and I remain confident that even if things get worse they will not degenerate to the point where foreigners will need to flee.
And as bad as things seem in Bangkok right now, I believe we are witnessing an incredible event in the history of democracy. I'm not sure it's a good event, but it is incredible, or at least incredibly interesting.
Imagine for a moment how the U.S. or British or Russian government would respond to several hundred protesters occupying a government building. Whoever was involved would be dead or arrested or both, and we would not still be talking about it two weeks later. Although I don't agree with tactics like this, I understand why some feel they must be used. The PAD leadership faces criminal charges, but note how the government is remaining patient, at least from the standpoint of declining to use force to put a quick end to the disruption. Admittedly part of the reason they have done nothing is because the military and the police and various ministries and the King himself all are sharing power and responsibility while jockeying against each other, and no one wants to make a mistake that would lead to unnecessary bloodshed. Doing so could very well set off a chain reaction of violence. Those in power are surely afraid of the backlash that would be the predictable result of "rolling up" the protest - this is a well-industrialized nation where the average person makes about $150-$200 a month while those among the richest 2% own more than 90% of the country's wealth. Thai people are known for their patience and kindness, but every day the papers carry stories of explosive violence, sometimes related to criminal activities, sometimes to political dissension, and almost always to poverty. The worst-case scenarios are that the protests would blow up to the point where the military has to be called in or that the violence would spread to the provinces.
At any rate, Thailand's struggle to evolve their democracy is just beginning. The corruption found in every government agency runs from the bottom up, not from the top down, and there is a long tradition of graft and bribery that is not likely to change simply because the current figurehead is replaced. The military and the monarchy have been intertwined through marriage and blood-relation for hundreds of years, and each depends on the other for legitimacy. But now they are finding out that they must learn how to include "the people," those pesky teeming masses that have elected such undesirable governments.
Looming in the future is the fate of King Bumibon's legacy. Last year he turned 80, and his health has been in decline. As far as kings go, he is a great man and is widely revered by his subjects. When he became king, the monarchy was reduced to the status of puppet to the military. By the sheer force of his charisma, benevolence and concern for the people, he regained the nation's trust and admiration and has re-established the power to influence political and military decisions. Some say he is the only one holding everything together. His son, the heir apparent, is said to be a much-devolved version of the father, and although it is illegal to denigrate any of the royal family, he is the one royal that Thai people are willing to complain about in private. No one wants to think about the next generation coming to power: an ill-respected king of weak character coupled with a strong military could have disastrous consequences for the future of democracy here. With luck, Bumibon will outlive his playboy offspring, but should there be a new king during this current crisis, all bets are off.
Still safe and sound in beautiful Chiang Mai,
Dave
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